شبیه‌سازی مراحل فنولوژیک و طول دوره رشد سورگوم دانه‌ای با استفاده از مدل SSM-iSorghum (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان گرگان)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه گنبد

2 دانشگاه گنبد کاووس

3 گرگان

4 تهران

چکیده

در مدل SSM شبیه ساز ساده‌ای برای تخمین عملکرد و مراحل فنولوژیک محصولات مختلف بکار رفته است. هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی مدل SSM-iSorghum برای پیش‌بینی مراحل مختلف فنولوژی و عملکرد سورگوم دانه‌ای تحت شرایط آب و هوایی معتدل مرطوب در شهرستان گرگان است. رشد و نمو سورگوم با استفاده از مدل SSM-iSorghum بر پایۀ آمار داده‌های هواشناسی شهرستان گرگان شامل (دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه، میزان تابش خورشید و میزان بارندگی) روی رقم کیمیا با استفاده از 20 سناریو مختلف انجام شد. تراکم کاشت در چهار سطح (17، 21 و 28 و 35 بوته در متر مربع) و تاریخ کاشت در پنج سطح (10 اردیبهشت، 15 اردیبهشت، 10 خرداد، 15 خرداد و یک تیر) شبیه‌سازی انجام شد. برای پارامترهای ورودی مدل شامل (داده‌های هواشناسی، خصوصیات خاک، مدیریت زراعی) با استفاده از مقادیر به‌دست آمده از آزمایشات مزرعه‌ای در طی دو سال زراعی‌‌ 1389 و 1390 در مزرعه ایستگاه تحقیقات کشاورزی گرگان استفاده شد. آزمایش در چهار تراکم مختلف و پنج تاریخ کشت متفاوت طی دو سال و در مجموع با 20 سناریو مختلف انجام شد. نتایج مدل با استفاده از آماره‌های مبتنی بر اختلاف مقادیر شبیه‌سازی و مشاهده شده نشان داد که مدل SSM مراحل فنولوژیک در تاریخ کشت‌های مختلف و تراکم‌های متفاوت را به خوبی پیش بینی می‌کند. بالاترین ضریب تبیین (R2) مربوط به روز از کاشت تا رسیدگی فیزیولوژیک و روز از کاشت تا رسیدگی برداشت با مقدار 94/0 و 91/0 درصد به‌دست آمد، بنابر این مدل می‌تواند در برنامه‌ریزی مدیریتی مراحل فنولوژی مزرعه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of phonological development and growth duration in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) using SSM-iSorghum model (Case study: Gorgan County)

نویسندگان [English]

  • ali Rahemi karizki 1
  • Hamid Kouhkan 2
  • M.T Feyzbakhsh 3
  • أ Khaliliaqdam 4
1 agroecology
2 Gonbad University, Gonbad,( Iran)
4 Tehran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) is a plant in the cereal family that was domesticated at the same time as other cereals around three thousand years ago. Sorghum is the fifth most important cereal in the world after wheat, rice, corn and barley.
Materials and methods
SSM-Sorghum is a model to simulate sorghum crop phenology, growth and yield formation. The model was derived from SSM-Wheat model described by Soltani and Sinclair (2013) The sorghum model structure is the same as that wheat model except for phenology submodel. Phenology submodel is based on Alagarswamy and Ritchie (1990) with some modifications. Key phenological stages are: emergence (EMR), end of juvenile (EJU), panicle initiation (PNI), termination leaf growth on main-stem (TLM), anthesis (ANT), beginning seed growth (BSG), physiological maturity (PM) and harvest maturity (HM). Phenological development from EJU to PNI is sensitive to both temperature and photoperiod. Other stages are only sensitive to temperature. Biological day (bd) requirements for below temperature-sensitive stages are assumed constant for all cultivars. The growth and development of sorghum were simulated using the SSM_iSorghum model based on meteorological data of Gorgan city during the years 2010to 2011, including (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, amount of sunlight and rainfall) on Kimia cultivar using different scenarios. For model input parameters including (meteorological data, soil properties, crop management) using the values obtained from field experiments of the annual crop of 2010-2011 in the research farm of Gorgan Agricultural Research Station was used.
Conclusion
The results of model evaluation of some statistics based on the difference between simulated and observed values showed that SSM model predicts phenological stages in the history of different cultures and different densities. The root mean square error per day from crop to emergence to day from crop to crop ripening predicted by the model was highly accurate and also had the highest coefficient of determination (R2) for the day from crop to physiological crop and the day from crop to crop ripening It was obtained with 0.94 and 0.91%, so the model can be used in management planning of farm phenology stages. The distribution of predicted and observed points of growth phenology, harvest index, biological yield and grain yield were in the range of 1: 1. Which shows that the model has been used to predict the phenological stages of growth in the climatic conditions of Gorgan. The highest and lowest amplitude of observed grain yield data varied from 2.35 to 7.35 ton/ ha-1 with an average of 4.24 ton / ha-1, respectively, and the maximum amplitude and lowest simulated yield ranged from 2.6-6.60 t / ha-1. With an average of 3.92 tons per hectare, it seems that the difference in different planting dates is the main reason for increasing the range of grain yield (Table 3). The value of explanation coefficient (R2) was 0.78%. In using the models to predict the performance, it has been reported that the value of the explanation coefficient should be more than 60%, which is a condition in this model. Regarding the diagram between the observed performance and the simulated performance, it was found that the data is in the range of 15% of line 1. : 1 is not located, so the model did not have a suitable simulation of Gorgan conditions for grain yield.
Conclusion
Evaluation of SSM-Sorghum model showed that this model simulates phenological stages, including harvest index, leaf area index, and biological yield with different planting dates and different densities with appropriate accuracy in Gorgan climatic conditions. Most of the points were in the reliable range (± 15%) of the 1: 1 line, which indicates an accurate estimate of the model parameters or confirms the simulation efficiency of the model process steps. Therefore, this model can be used in farm management planning including (selection of appropriate planting date, appropriate density). Although the model simulates the stages of growth phenology well, it seems necessary to retest the test and accuracy of the model with data from various experiments and to use it in the equations if the results of this study are confirmed. Obviously, models are effective when used by analyzing physiological and ecological conditions and based on experiments and experimental measurements of the system.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • simulation
  • SSM-iSorghum model
  • Phenological stages
  • Yield grain

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
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