ارزیابی مدل LINTUL1-POTATO در شبیه‌سازی مراحل نمو و عملکرد پتانسیل کشت بهاره سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

سیب‌زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) جایگاه ویژه‌ای در اکوسیستم های زراعی و تغذیه مردم ایران دارد. استفاده از مدل های شبیه‌سازی در پیش‌بینی صحیح مراحل فنولوژی و تعیین عملکرد پتانسیل مناطق تولید به منظور برنامه‌ریزی برای افزایش تولید ضروری است. یکی از متداول ترین مدل شبیه‌سازی مراحل نمو سیب‌زمینی در شرایط پتانسیل LINTUL1-POTATO است. این مدل تغییرات روزانه متغیرهای رشد و عملکرد را براساس گام زمانی روزانه شبیه‌سازی می‌کند. به منظور ارزیابی این مدل در کشت بهاره 10 شهر به عنوان ایستگاه مطالعاتی در اقلیم‌های مختلف کشور انتخاب شدند. داده های بلند مدت آب و هوایی شامل درجه حرارت، تشعشع روزانه، اطلاعات مربوط به مراحل نمو (پنج ایستگاه) و اطلاعات عملکرد کل ایستگاه ها جمع‌آوری گردید. با تحلیل نتایج نمودار جعبه ای (باکس پلات) حداکثر عملکرد برای هر ایستگاه مطالعاتی به عنوان تقریبی از عملکرد پتانسیل مشاهده شده تعیین گردید. واسنجی مدل با تغییر برخی پارامترها مطابق با شرایط آب ‌و ‌هوای ایران انجام و آزمون‌های آماری مختلف نشان داد که مدل قادر است فواصل زمانی کاشت تا شروع گل‌دهی،گل‌دهی تا رسید‌گی و نیز عملکرد سیب‌زمینی را با دقت قابل قبولی شبیه‌سازی نماید. نتایج اعتبارسنجی نشان داد که مدل طول مرحله کاشت تا شروع گل‌دهی را در دامنه 59 تا 78 روز، طول مرحله شروع گل‌دهی تا رسیدن در محدوده 43 تا 98 روز و عملکرد را بین 55 تا 76 تن در هکتار شبیه‌سازی نمود. بین مقادیر واقعی و شبیه‌سازی شده تفاوت معنی‌داری (05/0≤ p) مشاهده نشد. ضریب تغییرات (CV) مقادیر متغیرهای شبیه‌سازی شده همواره کمتر از10 درصد بود. همچنین مرحله کاشت تا گل‌دهی (78/0=R2 و 82/3=RSME%)، مرحله گل‌دهی تا رسیدن (81/0=R2 و 04/11=RSME%) و در نهایت، عملکرد (63/0=R2 و 91/3=RSME%) به خوبی شبیه‌سازی شد. شاخص تطابق (93/0-88/0) متغیرهای مورد بررسی در حد قابل قبول بود. به طورکلی، نتایج نشان داد از این مدل می‌توان برای پیش‌بینی مراحل نمو و عملکرد پتانسیل سیب‌زمینی در کشت بهاره در مناطق مختلف ایران استفاده نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of LINTUL1-POTATO Model for Simulation of Development Stages and Potential Yield of Spring-Sown Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • alireza mohannadi
  • alireza koocheki
  • mehdi Nassiri Mahallati
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) has a special place in the crop production systems of Iran and due to its nutritional value has an important role in the food security of the country during the coming decade. Therefore, increasing potato production is crucial to overcome future food demand. However, due to limited land and water resources higher production could be achieved through increased yield per unit area. Success in this scope calls for an accurate estimation of potential yield of potato in order to reduce the yield gap in different production regions over the country. Crop simulation models are known as powerful tools for prediction of potential yield at regional level. However, the accuracy of yield prediction is strongly dependent on the quality of required input data for models. Therefore, universal crop models with minimum input data, e.g. LINTUL, are recommended where enough data at regional scale are not available. In this research LINTUL1-POTATO model was calibrated and validated for prediction of developmental stages and potential yield of spring-sown potato in Iran over the selected production regions

Materials and Methods
This study was conducted in 10 selected stations covering the most important potato production regions of the country. Maximum attainable yield of each station was estimated using box plots of the observed yields and the upper 90% probability was considered as observed potential yield. Duration of development stages of potato were obtained from the previously conducted researches in the selected stations. LINTUL1-POTATO model was calibrated in the selected stations by adjusting crop parameters of the model according to the published data on spring-sown potato. The performance of the calibrated model was tested using statistical measures. After calibration, the model was validated against data set independent from the data used during calibration. Prediction ability of the model was then evaluated using R2, CV, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (RMSE%) and index of agreement (d).

Results and Discussion
The calibrated model was able to simulate the duration of development stages including planting to flowering and flowering to maturity as well as potential yield of potato in the selected stations and the model performance was statistically confirmed. The results of validation showed that the model simulates the length planting to flowering stage in the range of 59 to 78 days, duration of flowering to maturity in the range of 43 to 98 days and the potential yield from 55 to 76 t ha-1 in different stations. There was no significant difference between observed and simulated values (P

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Box plot
  • Developmental stage
  • Flowering to maturity
  • Planting to flowering
Acquaah, G. 2004. Principles of Crop Production: Theory, Techniques, and Technology. Prentice-Hall Publishing. NJ., USA.
Ahmadi, H., and Shaemi, A. 2012. Evaluate the thermal conditions in the cultivation of potatoes to make a calendar of selected meteorological stations in Ilam. Journal of Geography and Natural Resources 15: 65-76. (In Persian with English Summary)
Amiri, E., and Rezaei, M. 2009. Testing the modeling capability of ORYZA2000 under water and nitrogen limited conditions in Northern Iran. World Applied Sciences Journal 6(8): 1113-1122.
Anonymous. 2016. Agricultural Statistics of Iran. Available at http://amar.maj.ir (In Persian)
Anonymous. 2015. Document Sixth Program of Economic, Social and Cultural Development of the Islamic Republic of Iran 2015-2020. Management and Planning Organization. (In Persian)
Birch, P.R.J., Bryan, G., Fenton, B., Gilroy, E.M., Hein, I., Jones, J.T., Prashar, A., Taylor, M.A., Torrance, L., and Toth, I.K. 2012. Crops that feed the world 8: potato: are the trends of increased global production sustainable? Food Security 4: 477–508.
Boote, K.J., and Tollenaar, M. 1994. Modeling yield potential. In: Boote, K.J., Bennett, J.M., Sinclair, T.R., Paulsen, G.M. (Eds.), Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield. American Society of Agronomy, Madison, WI, USA, p. 553-565.
Bouman, B.A.M., and van Laar, H.H. 2006. Description and evaluation of the rice growth model ORYZA2000 under nitrogen-limited conditions. Agricultural Systems 87(3): 249-273.
Bouman, B.A.M., van Keulen, H., van Laar, H.H., and Rabbinge, R. 1996. The ‘School of de Wit’ crop growth simulation models: A pedigree and historical overview. Agricultural Systems 52(3): 171-196.
Caldiz, D.O., Gaspari, F. J., Haverkort, A. J., and Struik, P.C. 2001. Agro-ecological zoning and potential yield of single or double cropping of potato in Argentina. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 109: 311-320.
Caldiz, D.O., and Struik, P.C. 1999. Survey of potato production and possible yield constraints in Argentina. Potato Research 42: 51–71.
Caldiz, D.O., and Gaspari, F.J. 1998. Agro-ecological zoning and potential yield of the potato crop in the southeast region of the province of Buenos Aires. Research and Development Project Report, La Plata, Argentina, 24 pp.
Deguchi, T., Iwama, K., and Haverkort, A.J. 2015. Actual and potential yield levels of potato in different production systems of Japan. Potato Research 59: 207-225.
Deihimfard, R., Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2013. SUCROSBEET: A simple model for simulating growth and development of sugar beet under potential and nitrogen-limited conditions. Journal of Agroecology 20(1): 1-20. (In Persian with English Summary)
Eskandary, A. 2012. Study of the effect of irrigation regime on morphological traits yield of three cultivars potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) PhD Dissertation, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran. (In Persian with English Summary)
FAOSTAT. 2016. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Statistics Division, http://faostat3. www.fao.org/download/Q/QC/E
Farajnya, A. 2002. Land suitability evaluation and determination of wheat production potential in Tabriz plain. No. 1143, Institute of Soil and Water Research, Iran. (In Persian)
Gharineh, M.H., Bakhshandeh, A., Andarzian, B., and Fayzizadeh, N. 2012. Agro of Khuzestan province for potential yield of wheat with WOFOST model. Journal of Agroecology 4(3): 255-264. (In Persian with English Summary)
Grassini, P., van Bussel, L.G.J., Van Wart, J., Wolf, J., Claessens, L., Yang, H., Boogaard, H., de Groot, H., van Ittersum, M.K., and Cassman, K.G. 2015. How good is good enough? Data requirements for reliable crop yield simulations and yield-gap analysis. Field Crops Research 177: 49-63.
Hammer, G.L., and Muchow, R.C. 1994. Assessing climatic risk to sorghum production in water-limited subtropical environments: I. Development and testing of a simulation model. Field Crops Research 36: 221-234.
Hasan Panah, D., and Hassan Abadi, H. 2009. Effect of temperature thresholds on yield and size of seed tubers of potato cultivars in Ardebil region, Quarterly Journal of Dynamic agriculture. 6(3): 249-259. (In Persian with English Summary)
Hassan Abadi, H. 2011. Middle Report of the project for the determination of potential and assessment of damage by different management and natural factors in different phases of potato growth. Seed and Plant Improvement Research Institute, Karaj, Iran. 219 p. (In Persian)
Haverkort A.J., and Struik, P.C. 2015. Yield levels of potato crops: Recent achievements and future prospects. Field Crops Research 182: 76-85.
Haverkort, A.J., and Kooman, P.L. 1997. The use of modeling growth and development in ideotype of potato under conditions defining, limiting and reducing yields. Euphytica 94: 191-200.
Haverkort, A.J. 1990. Ecology of potato cropping systems in relation to latitude and altitude. Agricultural Systems 32: 251-272.
He, D., Wang, J., and Wang, E. 2015. Modelling the impact of climate variability and irrigation on winter canola yield and yield gap in Southwest China. 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast, Australia.
Hosseinpanahi, F., Kafi,M., Parsa, M., Nassiri Mahalati, M., and Banayyan, M. 2013. Using modeling approach for designing a wheat ideotype for drought stress conditions. Journal of Crop Breeding 10 (4): 123-147. (In Persian with English Summary)
Hozori Ahl, A. Ebad, A. Asghari, S., and Hozori Ahl, S. 1999. Effect of nitrogen and planting date on physiological indices of potato growth and yield. In: Third conference of research findings in agriculture and natural resources (west of the Iran country). p. 85. (In Persian)
Hunt, L.A., Reynolds, M.P., Sayre, K.D., Rajaram, S., White, J.W., and Yan, W. 2003. Crop modeling and the identification of stable coefficients that may reflect significant groups of genes. Agronomy Journal 95: 20-31.
Islam, F., Rashid, M.H., Siddique, M.A., and Karim, M.R. 1993. Effect of seed size and spacing of seedling tubers from TPS on the grown and yield of potato. Bangladesh Horticulture 21: 25-30.
Jamieson B.G.M., Hodgson, A.N., and Bernard, R.T.F. 1991. Phylogenetic trends and variation in the ultrastructure of the spermatozoa of symptom species of South African patellid limpets (Archaeoga stropoda, Mollusca) Invertebrate Reproduction and Development 20: 137–146.
Kamkar, B., Koockeki , A.R., Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Rezvani Moghaddam, P. 2007. Yield gap analysis of cumin in nine regions of Khorasan provinces using modelling approach. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research 5(2): 333-341. (In Persian with English Summary)
Kamkar, B., and Mahdavi Damghani, A.M. 2008. Principle of Sustainable Agriculture. Jihad-e Daneshgahi of Mashhad Press, Mashhad, Iran. (In Persian)
Khalli, A., and Rezaei-e Sadr, H. 1997. Estimation of global solar radiation over Iran Based on climatical data. Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal 3: 15-35. (In Persian with English Summary)
Khanal, R.R. 2005. Phyllochron and leaf development in field grown rice genotypes under varying thermal environments of a high altitude cropping system. MSc. Thesis, University of Zu Bonn, Germany.
Kooman, P.L. 1995. Yielding ability potato crops as influenced by temperature and day-length. Thesis Wageningen University. ISBN 90-5485-362.
Kooman, P.L., and Haverkort, A.J. 1994. Modelling development and growth of the potato crop influenced by temperature and day length: LINTUL-POTATO. In: Haverkort A.J., MacKerron D.K.L. (Eds.) Ecology and modelling of potato crops under conditions limiting growth. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 41–60.
Kropff, M.J., Williams, R.L., Horie, T., Angus, J.F., Singh, U., Centeno, H.G., and Cassman, K.G. 1995. Predicting the yield potential of rice in different environments. In: Humphreys, E., Murray, E.A., Clampett, W.S., and Lewinn, L.G. (Eds.), Temperate Rice: Achievements and Temperate Rice Conference, Yanco 1994, Australia, pp. 657–664.
Landau, S., Mitchell, R., Barnett, V., Colls, J., Craigon, J., and Payne, R. 2000. A parsimonious, multiple-regression model of wheat yield response to environment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 101: 151-166.
Lansigan, F.P. 1998. Minimum data and information requirements for estimating yield gap in crop production systems. Agricultural Information and Technology, Asia and Oceania, pp. 151-159.
Machakaire, A.T.B., Steyn, J.M., Caldiz, D.O., and Haverkort, A.J. 2016. Forecasting Yield and Tuber Size of Processing Potatoes in South Africa Using the LINTUL-Potato-DSS Model. Potato Research 59:195–206.
Mehdipor, I., Sadrolashrafi, S.M., and Kazemnejad, M. 2010. Study of Comparative Advantage for potato production in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Science 12(1): 15-25. (In Persian with English Summary)
Mendham, N.J., Shipway, P.A., and Scott, R.K. 1981. The effects of delayed sowing and weather on growth, development and yield of winter oil-seed rape (Brassica napus). Journal of Agricultural Sciences 96: 389-416.
Molahlehi, L., Steyn, J.M., and Haverkort, A. 2013. Potato crop response to genotype and environment in a subtropical highland agro-ecology. Potato Research 56: 237-258.
Muchow, R., and Kropff, M. 1997. Assessing the potential yield of tropical crops: role of field experimentation and simulation. Applications of systems approaches at the field level. Springer, pp. 101-112.
Musa Purgorgi, A., and Hassan Abadi, H. 2012. Analysis of growth and variation in trend of some traits of potato cv. Agria in different planting dates. Journal of Seed and Plant Production 28(2): 187-208. (In Persian with English Summary)
Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2009. Agroecological zoning of wheat in Khorasan provinces: Estimating yield potential and yield gap. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research 7(2): 695-702. (In Persian with English Summary)
Nassiri Mahallati, M. 2000. Modeling of Crop Growth Processes. Mashhad University Press, Mashhad, Iran. 274 pp. (In Persian)
Nowroozi, A. 2013. Effect of planting date and plant density on growth and yield of three potato cultivars in Mongen region. Master's Thesis, Islamic Azad University of Damghan, Iran. (In Persian with English Summary)
Novikova, L., Yu, Kiru, S.D., and Rogozina, E.V. 2017.Valuable traits of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) varieties as influence by climate change in European Russia. Agriculture Biology 52(1): 75-83.
Orthington, C.M. 2006. Timing of climate factors that may influence potato yield, quality and potential nitrogen losses in a northeast Florida seepage-irrigated potato production system. PhD Thesis University of Florida.
Parvizie, K., Suri, C., and Mahmoudi, R. 2011. Effect of planting date on total yield and yield of potato varieties in Hamedan. Journal of Horticultural Science 25(1): 82-93. (In Persian with English Summary)
Rassam, G.A., and Soltani, A. 2014. A simple model to simulate growth and yield of soybean. Journal of Plant Production Research 21(2): 87-104. (In Persian with English Summary)
Raymundo, R., Asseng, S., Cammarano, D., and Quiroz, R. 2014. Potato, sweet potato, and yam models for climate change: A review. Field Crops Research 166: 173–185.
Sadegh Zadehhamayati, S., Hashemi Dezfuli, S.A., Siadat, S.A., and Valizadeh, M. 2001. Effects of row spacing and plant density on growth and yield of three potato cultivars in Ardabil region: I- Plant morphology and dry matter accumulation. Agricultural Science 11(3): 1-14. (In Persian with English Summary)
Sajadi, N., Sheikh Aliveed, S., Madany, H., and Safari Kamal Abadi, H. 2009. Effect of planting date and nitrogen values on potato cultivars of Markiz. New Finding in Agriculture 3: 287-301. (In Persian with English Summary)
Sephahvand, N. 2007. Potato Research Strategic Program. Seed and Plant Improvement Research Institute, Karaj, Iran. (In Persian)
Shojaei Nofrst, K. 2009. Investigating the effects of temperature limitation on growth and yield of potato cultivars under different climatic conditions, Agricultural Research Center and Natural Resources of Khorasan-e Razavi, Khorasan-e Razavi, Iran (In Persian )
Siadat, S.A., Hashemi Dezfuli, S.A., Valizadeh, M., and Sadegh Zadeh Hemayati, S. 1999. Analysis growth of three potato cultivars at different levels of planting pattern and plant density. Iranian Journal of Agriculture Science 30(2): 379-393. (In Persian with English Summary)
Spitters, C.J.T. 1990. Crop growth models: their usefulness and limitations. Acta Horticulturae 267: 349–368.
Spitters, C.J., and Schapendonk, A.H. 1990. Evaluation of breeding strategies for drought tolerance in potaot by means of crop growth simulation. Plant and Soil 123: 193-203.
Steyn, J.M., Frankeb, A.C., van der Waalsa, J.E., and Haverkort A.J. 2016. Resource use efficiencies as indicators of ecological sustainability in potato production: A South African case study. Field Crops Research 199: 136–149.
Stuttle, G.W., Yorio, N.C., and Wheeler, R.M. 1996. Interacting effects of photoperiod and photosynthetic photon flux on net carbon assimilation and starch accumulation in potato leaves. Journal of the American Society of Horticultural Science 121: 264-268.
Taei Semiromi, J., Ghanbari, A., Amiri, E., Ghaffari, A., Siahsar, B., and Ayoubi, S. 2012. Agroecological zoning of wheat in the Borujen Watershed: Rianfed and irrigated cropping systems. Journal of Management Systems 22(4): 1-13. (In Persian with English Summary)
Taheri, S. 2003. A Study on the effect of planting date and plant density on growth and yield of potatoes of Agria Cultivar in Shahrood Region. Master's Thesis, Islamic Azad University, Varamin, Tehran. (In Persian with English Summary)
Torkaman, M. 2016. Effect of warming and future climate change on crop characteristics and potato production in Iran. PhD Dissertation, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran. (In Persian with English Summary)
Tukey, J.W. 1977. Exploratory Data Analysis. Addison-Wesley.
Van Delden, A., Schroeder, J.J., Kropff, M.J., Grashoff, C., and Booij, R. 2001. Simulation of attainable potato yield under different organic nitrogen management strategies: Model development and explorations. In: Yielding ability and weed suppression of potato and wheat under organic nitrogen management. A. van Delden. PhD Thesis. Wageningen University, The Netherlands.
Van Diepen, C.A., Wolf, J., Van Keulen, H., and Rappoldt, C. 1989. WOFOST: a simulation model of crop production. Soil Use and Management 5: 16–24.
Van Ittersum, M.K., Leffelaar, P.A., Van Keulen, H., Kropff, M.J., Bastiaans, L., and Goudriaan, J. 2003. On approaches and applications of the Wageningen crop models. European Journal of Agronomy 18: 201-234.
van Laar, H., Goudriaan, J., and Van Keulen, H. 1997. SUCROS97: Simulation of crop growth for potential and water-limited production situations. C.T. de Wit Graduate School for Production Ecology and Resource Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 52.
Van Oijen, M., and Leffelaar, P. 2008. Lintul 1: potential crop growth. Lintul 2: water limited crop growth. In: Crop Ecology. 2008. E. Heuvelink (Eds.), Wageningen University, The Netherlands.
Willmott, C.J., Rykiel, C.M., and Mintz, Y. 1985. Climatology of terrestrial seasonal water circle. Journal of Climatology 5: 589-606.
Wolf, J. 2002. Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. I. Model calibration and sensitivity analyses. Climate Research 21: 173-186.
CAPTCHA Image

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 0-727 فروردین 2
  • تاریخ دریافت: 21 اسفند 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 21 اسفند 1396
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 21 اسفند 1396