نوسانات مکانی عملکرد پتانسیل و خلاء عملکرد در کشت بهاره سیب زمینی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• علیرضا محمدی ¹
• علیرضا کوچکی ²
• مهدی نصیری محلاتی ²

¹ فردوسی مشهد

² Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

10.22067/jag.v14i4.80031

چکیده

نوسانات مکانی عملکرد پتانسیل و خلاء عملکرد در کشت بهاره سیب زمینی ایران
Spatial variability of Potential Yield and Yield Gap of Spring-Sown Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Iran
چکیده
سیب زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) جایگاه ویژه ای در اکوسیستم­های زراعی و امنیت غذایی ایران دارد . برنامه ریزی نوین برای افزایش تولید پایدار این محصول مستلزم شناخت تغییرات مکانی عملکرد پتانسیل، واقعی و خلاء عملکرد در مناطق تولید می باشد. این تحقیق  با هدف پهنه بندی مکانی سطوح عملکرد در مهمترین نظام تولید سیب زمینی ایران با استفاده از مدل LINTUL1-POTATO  که قبلا برای کشت بهاره سیب زمینی واسنجی وتعیین اعتبار شده ، انجام شد. ابتدا نظام کشت بهار براساس توزیع جغرافیایی به چهار منطقه شامل شمال شرق ، مرکز، شمال غرب و غرب کشور تقسیم و 98 شهر با پراکنش مناسب به عنوان ایستگاههای مطالعاتی در نظر گرفته شد. داده های روزانه بلند مدت آب و هوایی( درجه حرارت و تشعشع ) و میانگین عملکرد واقعی Yact)) در فاصله سالهای 95-1393 برای هر ایستگاه جمع آوری وبا استفاده از مدل، عملکرد پتانسیل(Yp) درهر ایستگاه شبیه سازی شد. سپس خلاء عملکرد (Yg )محاسبه و نتایج به سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی منتقل و با درون یابی، نقشه های سطوح عملکرد برای هرمنطقه ترسیم گردید. در منطقه شمال شرق میانگین بلند مدت دمای حداقل در امتداد شرق به غرب افزایش و عملکرد پتانسیل از 5/63 به 04/56 تن درهکتار کاهش یافت. در این امتداد به دلیل کاهش استعداد زراعی خاک، عملکرد واقعی 41 درصد کاهش و خلاء عملکرد 87/55 درصد افزایش و حداکثر به میزان 41 تن درهکتار (معادل 9/71 درصد) رسید. لذا در پهنه هایی با عملکرد پتانسیل زیاد، خلاء عملکردکمتری مشاهده شد. در منطقه مرکزی ایران در قسمتهای شمالی (فیروزکوه، آوج) و قسمتهای جنوبی (سمیرم) به دلیل شرایط مطلوب دمایی بیشترین عملکرد پتانسیل (7/62 تن در هکتار) برآورد شد. مقدار خلاء عملکرد در پهنه های مختلف این منطقه در دامنه 2/27 (44% = Yp) تا 77/42 تن در هکتار (67% = Yp) محاسبه شد. در واقع کشاورزان این منطقه تنها 33 تا 56 درصد از پتانسیل محیطی را مورد استفاده قرار می دهند. منطقه شمال غرب ایران با توجه شرایط بهینه دمایی بالاترین عملکرد پتانسیل کشور را دارا بود (9/78 تن درهکتار ) و به دلیل تنوع زیاد اقلیمی بیشترین مقدار نوسان عملکرد پتانسیل (5 /23 تن در هکتار )در این منطقه مشاهده شد. مقدار خلاء عملکرد از4/22 ( شهرستان اردبیل ) تا 4/57 تن در هکتار (شهرستان تکاب) محاسبه شد که به ترتبیب 37 و 78 درصد عملکرد پتانسیل بود. البته در نواحی با عملکردپتانسیل بالا خلاء عملکرد نیز زیاد بود. در منطقه غرب کشور با توجه به گرادیان افزایش درجه حرارت از شمال به جنوب عملکرد پتانسیل از 22/63 به 40/54 تن در هکتار کاهش یافت. خلاء عملکرد با ضریب تغییرات 76/32 درصد در محدوده 38/14 ( شهرستان هرسین) تا 66/45 تن در هکتار ( شهرستان دهلران) برآورد شد که به ترتیب معادل 47/24 و 9/83 درصد عملکرد پتانسیل بود. استانهای کرمانشاه و همدان کمترین مقدار خلاء عملکرد(20 تن درهکتار) را داشته و متوسط عملکرد واقعی کشاورزان حدود 80 درصد عملکرد پتانسیل بود. با توجه به نتایج این مطالعه جهت پرکردن خلاء عملکرد بهسازی روشهای مدیریتی بعنوان راهکاراصلی باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مدلLINTUL1-POTATO
• سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی
• خلاءعملکرد
• پهنه بندی
• گرادیان دما

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial variability of Potential Yield and Yield Gap of Spring-Sown Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• Alireza Koocheki ²
• Mehdi Nassiri mahallaty ²

چکیده [English]

Spatial Variability of Potential Yield and Yield Gap of Spring-Sown Potato
(Solanum tuberosum L.) in Iran
 
Introduction
Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) has a special place in Iranian agroecosystems and food security. increasing potato production is crucial to overcome future food demand.one of practical methode to overcome the nutritional challenge of a growing population and sustainable production is the use of yield gap analysis. Difference between yield potential  and actual yield, known as yield gap . The yield gap analysis describes the quantitative estimate of the possibility of increasing production capacity at a regional, national, and global scale. In Iran, limited research has been conducted on the potential yield and yield gap analysis of crops and mostly focuse on wheat . The combination of yield gap analysis and Geographic Information System (GIS) is a powerful tool for improving crops. In this research, using the LINTUL1-POTAT model, yield potentials and yield gap in spring potato were determined. By transferring the results to the GIS, map of the potential yield  and yield gap was prepared on a regional scale.
Materials and Methods
 
In this research, Iran's Spring-Sown Potato production area was divided into four region including north-east (Ӏ), center(II), northwest (III) and west (IV). Then 98 location were choosed and long-term weather data (temperature and radiation) and actual yield (2014-16) was collected for each location. The LINTUL1-POTATO model, which was calibrated and validated to simulate the developmental stages of potential yield in spring potato cultivars, was used to predict potential yields of each location .The yield gap for each location was calculated (Yg = Yp-Yact) and the results were transmitted to the geographic information system(GIS) and the yield leveles (Yp,Yact,Yg) maps for each region were plotted.
 
Results and Discussion
 
In the north-east region (Ӏ), the average potato potential yield was estimated to be 59.36 t ha-1. in this region, from the East to the West, the yield gap increases and the maximum is 54.41t ha-1 (70% potential yield).
In the central region of Iran (II) , the northern and southern parts have more favorable  temperatures for potato growth than  other parts and the highest potential yield (62.7 t ha-1) was estimated. The actual yield was 33 to 56 percent of the potential. The yield gap was Varied in different regions in the range of 27.27 to 42.77 t ha-1.
In the northwest region of Iran (III), with the most favorable temperature conditions for potato growth, the highest potential yield of the country was estimated at about 79 t ha-1.in this area was observed the highest variation of potential yield (23.5 t ha-1) because the variation in climate was very high . The yield gap value ranges from 22.4 to 57.4 t ha-1, that is equal 37 and 78 percent of potential yield, respectively. In high potential areas, the amount of yield gap was high.
 In the weste region of the country (IV), the temperature gradient from the north (16.98 °C) to the south (35.86 °C) increases, then Accordingly gradient the potential yield is reduced from 63.22 t ha-1 to 40.44 t ha-1. The yield gap with coefficient of variation of 32.76% in the range of 14.38 to 45.66 t ha-1 was calculated which was equal to 24.47% and 83.9% of potential yield respectively.
Conclusion
 
The Northwest region had highest yield potential with the great yield gap. The potato yield gap in the whole country ranged from 14.38  to 57.4 t ha -1. In most of the regions , the variations in yield potential  and yield gap was the same, indicating that the potential of these areas was not well utilized.
Key words: LINTUL1-POTATO model, GIS , actual yield ,Zonation  , temperature gradient
Refrence
Kleinwechter, U., Gastelo, M., Ritchie , J., Nelson, G., Asseng, S. 2016. Simulating cultivar variations in potato yields for contrasting environments . Agricultural Systems, 145: 51-63
Lobell , D.B., Cassman, K.G., Field, C.B. 2009. Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes, and causes
van Ittersum, M.K., Cassman, K.G., Grassini, P., Wolf, J., Tittonell, P., Hochman, Z., 2013. Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance—a review . Field Crops Research ,143 : 4-17

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• LINTUL1-POTATO Model
• GIS
• Yield gap
• zonation
• Temperature Gradient

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