مطالعه بلندمدت تغییرات فشرده‏سازی و تأثیر آن بر ثبات تولید محصولات کشاورزی در ایران (دوره 50 ساله 1341 تا 1390)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 تحقیقات علوم زراعی و باغی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خراسان رضوی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی

2 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 سازمان تحقیقات،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی،تهران

چکیده

به‌منظور بررسی وضعیت فشرده‌سازی و روند تغییرات آن در کشاورزی ایران 63 متغیر در قالب شش گروه کاربری اراضی، تولید، کارآیی مصرف، ورودی‏ها (نهاده، ماشین‌آلات)، انرژی و جمعیت برای دوره 50 ساله 1341 تا 1390 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. تغییرات کاربری اراضی، افزایش مصرف نهاده‏ها و افزایش جمعیت به‌عنوان عوامل مؤثر در افزایش فشرده‌سازی تعیین شدند. برای تعیین ثبات سطح زیر کشت، تولید و عملکرد، ضریب تغییرات این متغیر‏ها در پنج دهه برای محصولات مهم زراعی و باغی به‌طور مجزا محاسبه شد و روند تغییرات این ضرایب به‌عنوان شاخصی برای ثبات تعیین شد. برای تعیین میزان حساسیت به تغییرات محیطی نسبت عملکرد هر محصول در هر سال به میانگین عملکرد محصول در بازه‏های 10 ساله به‌طور مجزا برای هر گیاه و برای همه محصولات به‌عنوان ظرفیت عملکرد محاسبه شد، شیب خط رگرسیون بین ظرفیت عملکرد هر محصول با میانگین ظرفیت عملکرد همه محصولات بیانگر میزان حساسیت آن محصول به تغییرات محیطی است. نتایج نشان داد که در طی مدت 50 سال سطح زیر کشت از حدود 6/6 به 3/13 میلیون هکتار و تولید محصولات کشاورزی از 11 به 94 میلیون تن افزایش یافته و در همین حال ضریب تغییرات سطح زیر کشت و تولید کاسته شد همبستگی منفی و معنی‌دار 47/0- و 89/0- به‌ترتیب بین ضرایب تغییرات سطح زیر کشت و تولید در دهه‌های مختلف نشان‌دهنده افزایش ثبات تولید بود. شاخص حساسیت به تغییرات محیطی مربوط به ذرت (Zea mays L.)، گندم (.Triticum aestivum L( و جو (.Hordeum vulgare L (به‌ترتیب برابر با 59/1، 99/0 و 93/0 بود که نشان‌دهنده پایین‌تر بودن ثبات عملکرد در محصولات اصلی است. تجزیه به مؤلفه‏های اصلی 63 متغیر، دو الگوی اصلی در تغییرات گروه‏ها را نشان داد. دسته اول با توصیف 51 درصد نشان‏دهنده افزایش فشرده‏سازی در قالب تغییر کاربری اراضی زراعی، تغییرات تولید و عملکرد و افزایش مصرف نهاده‏ها در طی 50 سال گذشته بود و مؤلفه دوم با توصیف 20 درصد از تغییرات بیانگر تغییرات مهمی در کشاورزی ایران شامل تغییر کارآیی مصرف نهاده و رشد جمعیت بود. در طی 50 سال گذشته شاخص‌های مرتبط با فشرده‌سازی نظیر سطح زیر کشت با دو برابر شدن از 6/6 به 13 میلیون هکتار، مصرف کود‌های شیمیایی با 35 برابر شدن از هفت به 250 کیلوگرم در هکتار، و تعداد تراکتور با 700 برابر شدن از 800 به 565 هزار عدد افزایش یافته است و کارآیی مصرف نهاده‌ها 300 درصد کاهش یافته و در مجموع نشان می‌دهد که کشاورزی ایران در طی دهه‌های گذشته فشرده‌تر شده و در عین حال ثبات عملکرد کاهش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Long Term Evaluation of Intensification in Iran Agriculture and Its Impact on Production Stability (50 years from 1962 to 2011)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Reza kiani 1
  • Alireza Koocheki 2
  • Mahdi Nasiri Mahallati 2
  • Ahamd Zareh Feiz Abadi 3
1 Ferdowsi university of Mashhad
2 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Agricultural ResearchU Education and Extension Organization
چکیده [English]

Introduction
In the next 20 years, food production for the growing population is one of the most important issues. As increasing planting area is limited, improving productivity and yield is the only solution which could be reached through crop breeding and improving pest, disease and weeds control methods and increasing use efficeincy of fertilizers and water. Most of the time, increasing production in agricltulre is alongside with more intensification in agriculture. There is now specific definition for this term but in a general definition it means increasing the number of crops planted in unit of area (one hectare) through a year, as well as increasing using of inputs including fertilizers, chemicals and machinery in unit of area. Macleod and Moller (2006) evaluated the trend of intensification in Newzland agriculture by examining changes in 35 agricultural variables (e.g planting area, yield, inputs in unit of area and population related to agricultural production). Their results showed that intesnification is increased through 40 years (1961-200) which can threat sustainability of Newzeland farming in future.
Agriculture intensification in Iran started since 1921 by using agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizers and increased rapidly after approval of land reform law in 1961s. Increasing the application of inputs in Iran agriculture has resulted to decrease sustainability of agricltural production and aslo destruction of forest and rangelands.  Therefore, in this research time trend of intensification of cropping systems of Iran is studied using different indicators.
Materials and Methods
In order to evaluate the status and the trend of agriculture intensification in Iran, 63 variables in 5 groups including land use (cultivated area of each crop), production of each crop, yield, inputs (fertilizers, machinery and energy) and urban and ural population are examained for a 50-year period (1962 to 2011). Poduction stability was evaluated by calculating coeficeint of variance (CV) of planting area, production and yield in main agriculltural crops and fruits seperatly in each decades. For evaluating the sensivity of crops and fruit production to environmental changes the ratio of yield in a individual year to overal mean of yield for each ten years calculated for each crop seperately and for all crops as a yield capacity. The slope of the regression between yield capacity of each crop to yield capacity of all crops is an index for sensivity to environmental changes. All analysis and drwaing graphs were conducted using Xlstat 2014 and Excel 2103.
Results
Results showed that land use changes, increasing use of inputs and population growth are the main factors affecting intensification in Iran agriculture. From 1961 to 2011 the planting area has extended 2 times related to 6.6 million hectare at the beginning of this period and the agricultural productions increased to 94 million tons which was 7 times higher related to 13.3 million tons in 1961. During this period the main driving factor before 1980 is approving land reform law and increasing use of inputs which resulted to increase cultivated area and productions. In the following years increasing the application  of fertilizers, agricultural machinery and new varieties were the main factors affecting agricultural productions and intensifciation. Our research showed that through the evaluation period, variance of cultivated area and production decreased but the variance of yield increased and hence yield stability decreased. Principal component analysis (PCA) classified 63 variables in two main compontents which first one described 51 percent of total variation including land use, production, yield trend and also uses of inputs. The second component described 20 percent of variation including input use efficiency and use of maschinery.
Based on the changes in agicultural variables, PCA divided years into to 6 periods including 1962-1965, 1966-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-1998, 1999-2007and 2008-2011. During the first 3 periods agricultural area, production and yield were increased but during the next 3 periods the rate of increasing decreased. However, our research showed that Iran agriculture has been going through intensification in the last 50 years and approaching to food security is most likely possible through increasing efficient use of inputs by improving varieties and managmement of agricultural systems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • intensification
  • Agriculture
  • Stability
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