Evaluation of LINTUL1-POTATO Model for Simulation of Development Stages and Potential Yield of Spring-Sown Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Iran

Document Type : Research Article


Ferdowsi University of Mashhad


Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) has a special place in the crop production systems of Iran and due to its nutritional value has an important role in the food security of the country during the coming decade. Therefore, increasing potato production is crucial to overcome future food demand. However, due to limited land and water resources higher production could be achieved through increased yield per unit area. Success in this scope calls for an accurate estimation of potential yield of potato in order to reduce the yield gap in different production regions over the country. Crop simulation models are known as powerful tools for prediction of potential yield at regional level. However, the accuracy of yield prediction is strongly dependent on the quality of required input data for models. Therefore, universal crop models with minimum input data, e.g. LINTUL, are recommended where enough data at regional scale are not available. In this research LINTUL1-POTATO model was calibrated and validated for prediction of developmental stages and potential yield of spring-sown potato in Iran over the selected production regions

Materials and Methods
This study was conducted in 10 selected stations covering the most important potato production regions of the country. Maximum attainable yield of each station was estimated using box plots of the observed yields and the upper 90% probability was considered as observed potential yield. Duration of development stages of potato were obtained from the previously conducted researches in the selected stations. LINTUL1-POTATO model was calibrated in the selected stations by adjusting crop parameters of the model according to the published data on spring-sown potato. The performance of the calibrated model was tested using statistical measures. After calibration, the model was validated against data set independent from the data used during calibration. Prediction ability of the model was then evaluated using R2, CV, root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (RMSE%) and index of agreement (d).

Results and Discussion
The calibrated model was able to simulate the duration of development stages including planting to flowering and flowering to maturity as well as potential yield of potato in the selected stations and the model performance was statistically confirmed. The results of validation showed that the model simulates the length planting to flowering stage in the range of 59 to 78 days, duration of flowering to maturity in the range of 43 to 98 days and the potential yield from 55 to 76 t ha-1 in different stations. There was no significant difference between observed and simulated values (P


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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 01 January 2024
  • Receive Date: 12 March 2018
  • Accept Date: 12 March 2018
  • First Publish Date: 27 November 2020