Long Term Evaluation of Intensification in Iran Agriculture and Its Impact on Production Stability (50 years from 1962 to 2011)

Document Type : Scientific - Research

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural and Horticultural Research, Khorasan Razavi Agricultural and Natural Resources Reseach and Education Center, AREEO, Mashhad, Iran

2 Department of Agrotechnology, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

3 Agricultural ResearchU Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
In the next 20 years, food production for the growing population is one of the most important issues. As increasing planting area is limited, improving productivity and yield is the only solution which could be reached through crop breeding and improving pest, disease and weeds control methods and increasing use efficeincy of fertilizers and water. Most of the time, increasing production in agricltulre is alongside with more intensification in agriculture. There is now specific definition for this term but in a general definition it means increasing the number of crops planted in unit of area (one hectare) through a year, as well as increasing using of inputs including fertilizers, chemicals and machinery in unit of area. Macleod and Moller (2006) evaluated the trend of intensification in Newzland agriculture by examining changes in 35 agricultural variables (e.g planting area, yield, inputs in unit of area and population related to agricultural production). Their results showed that intesnification is increased through 40 years (1961-200) which can threat sustainability of Newzeland farming in future.
Agriculture intensification in Iran started since 1921 by using agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizers and increased rapidly after approval of land reform law in 1961s. Increasing the application of inputs in Iran agriculture has resulted to decrease sustainability of agricltural production and aslo destruction of forest and rangelands.  Therefore, in this research time trend of intensification of cropping systems of Iran is studied using different indicators.
Materials and Methods
In order to evaluate the status and the trend of agriculture intensification in Iran, 63 variables in 5 groups including land use (cultivated area of each crop), production of each crop, yield, inputs (fertilizers, machinery and energy) and urban and ural population are examained for a 50-year period (1962 to 2011). Poduction stability was evaluated by calculating coeficeint of variance (CV) of planting area, production and yield in main agriculltural crops and fruits seperatly in each decades. For evaluating the sensivity of crops and fruit production to environmental changes the ratio of yield in a individual year to overal mean of yield for each ten years calculated for each crop seperately and for all crops as a yield capacity. The slope of the regression between yield capacity of each crop to yield capacity of all crops is an index for sensivity to environmental changes. All analysis and drwaing graphs were conducted using Xlstat 2014 and Excel 2103.
Results
Results showed that land use changes, increasing use of inputs and population growth are the main factors affecting intensification in Iran agriculture. From 1961 to 2011 the planting area has extended 2 times related to 6.6 million hectare at the beginning of this period and the agricultural productions increased to 94 million tons which was 7 times higher related to 13.3 million tons in 1961. During this period the main driving factor before 1980 is approving land reform law and increasing use of inputs which resulted to increase cultivated area and productions. In the following years increasing the application  of fertilizers, agricultural machinery and new varieties were the main factors affecting agricultural productions and intensifciation. Our research showed that through the evaluation period, variance of cultivated area and production decreased but the variance of yield increased and hence yield stability decreased. Principal component analysis (PCA) classified 63 variables in two main compontents which first one described 51 percent of total variation including land use, production, yield trend and also uses of inputs. The second component described 20 percent of variation including input use efficiency and use of maschinery.
Based on the changes in agicultural variables, PCA divided years into to 6 periods including 1962-1965, 1966-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-1998, 1999-2007and 2008-2011. During the first 3 periods agricultural area, production and yield were increased but during the next 3 periods the rate of increasing decreased. However, our research showed that Iran agriculture has been going through intensification in the last 50 years and approaching to food security is most likely possible through increasing efficient use of inputs by improving varieties and managmement of agricultural systems.

Keywords


Abdi, H., 2003. Factor rotations in factor analyses. Encyclopedia for Research Methods for the Social Sciences. Sage: Thousand Oaks, CA, pp. 792-795
Akhondi, A., 2013. Jihad mirror reflects the ideas of the left at the beginning of the revolution. Bussines for future Weekly Magazine 44: 11-16. (In Persian with English Summary)
Amjadi, A., and Chizari, A., 2006. Mechanization of agriculture in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 14, 155-182. (In Persian with English Summary).
Agricultural Support Services (ASS)., 2014. Trend of Fertilizer Consumption. Availabe at Web site http://www.assc.ir/aboutus-pishineh-fa.html (accessed 1 January 2015). (In Persian)
Beddow, J.M., Pardey, P.G., Koo, J., and Wood, S., 2010. The changing landscape of global agriculture In: The Shifting Patterns of Agricultural Production and Productivity Worldwide Alston, J.M., Babcock, B.A., and Pardey, P. G. (Eds). Iowa State Univ., Ames, pp. 7-38.
Belanger, L., and Grenier, M., 2002. Agriculture intensification and forest fragmentation in the St. Lawrence valley, Quebec, Canada. Landscape Ecology 17: 495-507.
Bhandari, P., 2004. Relative deprivation and migration in an agricultural setting of nepal. Population and Environment 25: 475-499.
Borlaug, N., 2007. Feeding a Hungry World. Science 318, 359.
Boserup, E., 1966. The conditions of agricultural growth; the economics of agrarian change under population pressure. Aldine Pub. Co., Chicago.
Bruinsma, J., 2003. World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030:FAO, Rome.
Centeral Bank of Iran (CBI)., 1980. Until further notice orders for fertilizer does not need to obtain prior consen. pp. 15-15.Available at http://www.noormags.ir/view/fa/articlepage/327917. (In Persian)
Chand, R., and Raju, S., 2009. Instability in Indian agriculture during different phases of technology and policy. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics 64: 180-187.
Chloupek, O., Hrstkova, P., and Schweigert, P., 2004. Yield and its stability, crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change, weather and fertilisation over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries. Field Crops Research 85: 167-190.
Culman, S., Young-Mathews, A., Hollander, A., Ferris, H., Sanchez-Moreno, S., O’Geen, A., and Jackson, L., 2010. Biodiversity is associated with indicators of soil ecosystem functions over a landscape gradient of agricultural intensification. Landscape Ecology 25: 1333-1348.
Dahal, B.M., Nyborg, I., Sitaula, B.K., and Bajracharya, R.M., 2009. Agricultural intensification: food insecurity to income security in a mid-hill watershed of Nepal. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 7: 249-260.
Dallimer, M., Tinch, D., Acs, S., Hanley, N., Southall, H.R., Gaston, K.J.and Armsworth, P.R., 2009. 100 years of change: examining agricultural trends, habitat change and stakeholder perceptions through the 20th century. Journal of Applied Ecology 46: 334-343.
Effat, F., Noori, H., and Masoudian, A., 2014. Impact of Water Resources Reduce on Agriculture in Valanjan Seasonal Journal of spatial planing 4: 87-102.
Ehsani, K., 2006. Rural community development in Iran after the Revolution: The First Decade. Journal of Social and Cultural Dialogue 46: 1-14.
Farhadi, M., 2001. Is iranian agriculture primitive. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development 1: 222-256. (In Persian with English Summary).
Fuglie, K.O., 2010. Total factor productivity in the global agricultural economy: Evidence from FAO data. In: The shifting patterns of agricultural production and productivity worldwide alston, J.M., Babcock, B.A., and Pardey, P. G. (Eds). Iowa State Univ., Ames, pp. 63-95.
Gollin, D., 2006. Impacts of International Research on Intertemporal Yield Stability in Wheat and Maize: An Economic Assessment. CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
Hoghoghi, M., 2013. Agricultural status before and after islamic revolotion. In: Yosefi, M. (Ed.). The great center of islamic encyclopedia, p. 7.Availabel at http://cgie.org.ir/fa/news/7416. (In Persian)
Hüttl, R.F., and Frielinghaus, M., 1994. Soil fertility problems an agriculture and forestry perspective. Science of The Total Environment 143: 63-74.
Jose-Maria, L., Armengot, L., Blanco-Moreno, J.M., Bassa, M., and Sans, F.X., 2010. Effects of agricultural intensification on plant diversity in mediterranean dryland cereal fields. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 832-840.
Koocheki, A., 1996. Agriculture and sustainable development. Agricultural Economic and Developmen, 89-112. (In Persian with English Summary)
Krautkraemer, J.A., 1994. Population growth, soil fertility, and agricultural intensification. Journal of Development Economics 44: 403-428.
MacLeod, C.J., and Moller, H., 2006. Intensification and diversification of New Zealand agriculture since 1960: An evaluation of current indicators of land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 115: 201-218.
Mehrabi, H.and Esmaeili, A., 2011. Analysing energy input and output in Iran agriculture. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 1, 1-28.
Ministry of Jihad of Agriculture (MJA)., 2006. Yearly Book of Agricultural Statistic. (In Persian)
Naseri, M., 1999. A report about agricultural sector. Journal of New Issue in Economic 9-11. (In Persian)
Okazaki, S., 1985. Agricultural mechanization in Iran., Agriculture development in Midle East. John Wiley and Sons, pp. 171-187.
Okike, I.J., Jabbar, M.A., Manyong, V.M., Smith, J.W.; Akinwumi, J.A.; Ehui, S.K., 2001. Agricultural Intensification and Efficiency in the West African Savannahs: Evidence from northern Nigeria. Publisher: ILRI (aka ILCA and ILRAD).
President Deputy Strategic Plannig and Control (PDSPC)., 2008. Trend of chemical fertilizers consumption in Iran agriculture. Availabe at Web site http://files.spac.ir/%D9%87%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%87%
20%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87%20%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87/Barnameh%20gozashteh/298/p4.htm (Accessed 2015-04-01 Access). (In Persian)
Pender, J.L., 1998. Population growth, agricultural intensification, induced innovation and natural resource sustainability: An application of neoclassical growth theory. Agricultural Economics 19: 99-112.
Rudel, T.K., Schneider, L., Uriarte, M., Turner, B.L., DeFries, R., Lawrence, D., Geoghegan, J., Hecht, S., Ickowitz, A., Lambin, E.F., Birkenholtz, T., Baptista, S., and Grau, R., 2009. Agricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970–2005. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 20675-20680.
Schneider, U., and Smith, P., 2009. Energy intensities and greenhouse gas emission mitigation in global agriculture. Energy Efficiency 2: 195-206.
Stoate, C., Boatman, N.D., Borralho, R.J., Carvalho, C.R., Snoo, G.R.D.and Eden, P., 2001. Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe. Journal of Environmental Management 63, 337-365.
Tilman, D., Cassman, K.G., Matson, P.A., Naylor, R., and Polasky, S., 2002. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418: 671-677.
Tscharntke, T., Clough, Y., Wanger, T.C., Jackson, L., Motzke, I., Perfecto, I., Vandermeer, J., and Whitbread, A., 2012. Global food security, biodiversity conservation and the future of agricultural intensification. Biological Conservation 151: 53-59.
Turner, B.L., and Doolittle, W.E., 1978. The concept and measure of agricultural intensity. The Professional Geographer 30: 297-301.
Unknown, 1987. Dark and bright prospects for the future of Iran forests and pastures. Journal of Political Information and Economic 1: 60-63. (In Persian with English Summary).
Van Der Velde, M., Green, S.R., Vanclooster, M., and Clothier, B.E., 2007. Sustainable development in small island developing states: Agricultural intensification, economic development, and freshwater resources management on the coral atoll of Tongatapu. Ecological Economics 61: 456-468.
Velayati, S., and Kadivar, A., 2006. Environmental challenges in Iran forest and pasture. Journal of Geography and Regional Development 7: 53-72. (In Persian with English Summary)
CAPTCHA Image