کامی کابوسی عثمان مجیدی


با توجه به وابستگي شديد تاريخ مناسب گندم ديم  (Triticum aestivum L.)به وقوع بارش­هاي پاييزه و نوسان آن در سال­هاي مختلف، پژوهش حاضر با هدف برآورد تاريخ مناسب کشت گندم ديم در استان گلستان با استفاده از داده­هاي بارش روزانه 57 ايستگاه هواشناسي در دوره آماري مشترک 1395-1370 در پنج سطح احتمال وقوع 25، 50، 75، 85 و 95 درصد انجام شد. تاريخ کشت بر اساس وقوع اولين بارش برابر و بيشتر از 25 ميلي­متر طي يک دوره 10 روزه متوالي در ماه آذر انتخاب گرديد. به منظور بررسي صحت نتايج و اعتبارسنجي نتايج، از يافته­هاي پژوهش­هاي مختلف که در مقياس مزرعه در استان گلستان انجام شده بود، استفاده شد. نتايج نشان داد که تاريخ مناسب کشت گندم ديم در نيمه جنوبي استان زودتر از نيمه شمالي مي­باشد. سطح احتمال بر تاريخ کشت تأثير معني­دار داشت، ولي اثر ايستگاه بر آن معني­دار نبود. اختلاف آماري بين تمام سطوح احتمال وقوع معني­دار بود به طوري‌که سطح احتمال 25 و 95 درصد به ترتيب نشان‌دهنده زودترين و ديرترين تاريخ مناسب کشت گندم در استان گلستان بود. در ايستگاه­هاي مختلف استان، تاريخ کشت مناسب گندم ديم با احتمال وقوع 25 درصد بين اول تا 10 آذر، با احتمال وقوع 50 درصد بين اول تا 22 آذر، با احتمال وقوع 75 درصد بين 3 آذر تا 13 دي، با احتمال وقوع 85 درصد بين 11 آذر تا 25 دي و با احتمال وقوع 95 درصد بين 21 آذر تا 30 دي قرار داشت. با افزايش سطح احتمال پنجره تاريخ کشت در سطح استان طولاني­تر گرديد به گونه­اي که اختلاف تاريخ کشت مناطق مختلف استان در سطح احتمال 25 درصد 10 روز و در سطح احتمال 95 درصد 40 روز ه دست آمد. بر اساس نتايج، کاهش اندک ريسک زراعت (افزايش احتمال وقوع بارش مناسب از 25 به 50 درصد) با تأخير تاريخ کشت گندم به مدت چند روز امکان­پذير است در حالي است که کاهش بيشتر ريسک زراعت (افزايش احتمال وقوع بارش مناسب به 75، 85 و 95 درصد) از طريق تأخير تاريخ کشت به ميزان چند دهه مقدور خواهد بود. صحت­سنجي و اعتبارسنجي نتايج پژوهش حاضر با نتايج پژوهش­هاي مزرعه­اي و ميداني، ضمن تائيد دقت قابل قبول پيش­بيني تاريخ مناسب کشت بر اساس معيار معرفي شده، نشان داد که کشاورزان استان با درک صحيح از نقش بارش پاييزه در استقرار بوته و عملکرد محصول، تاريخ کشت گندم را با سطح احتمال بالايي درست انتخاب مي­نمايند.

جزئیات مقاله

کلمات کلیدی

پنجره کشت, تأخير در کشت, ريسک

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ارجاع به مقاله
کابوسی ک., & مجیدی ع. (2019). برآورد و پهنه¬بندي تاريخ مناسب کشت گندم ديم(Triticum aestivum L.) بر اساس سطوح مختلف احتمال وقوع بارش پاييزه در استان گلستان. بوم شناسی کشاورزی, 11(1), 217-229. https://doi.org/10.22067/jag.v11i1.72873
نوع مقاله
علمی - پژوهشی