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ظهراب اداوی محمودرضا تدین

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه شبیه¬سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر مراحل فنولوژیکی، شاخص سطح برگ، عملکرد زیست¬توده و غده سیب¬زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده منطقه فریدون¬شهر اصفهان بود. برای این منظور پیش بینی دو مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3 و IPCM4 تحت سه سناریوی A1B، B1 و A2 در سال‌های 2030، 2060 و 2090 به¬کار گرفته شد. برای شبیه¬سازی پارامترهای اقلیمی از مدل LARS-WG و برای شبیه¬سازی مراحل رشد سیب¬زمینی از مدل SUBSTOR-Potato و نرم¬افزار DSSAT استفاده گردید. نتایج ارزیابی مدل SUBSTOR-potato نشان داد مدل برآورد مناسبی (RMSE≤10) برای پیش¬بینی صفات عملکرد غده، حداکثر شاخص سطح برگ، روز تا گلدهی و روز تا رسیدگی فیزیولوژیک گیاه سیب¬زمینی در شرایط آب و هوایی فریدون¬شهر دارا می¬باشد. نتایج شبیه¬سازی نشان داد که در تمام سناریوهای مورد بررسی، رشد و نمو سیب-زمینی تحت تأثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم در آینده قرار خواهد گرفت و عملکرد آن نسبت به سال مبنا کاهش خواهد یافت. به¬طوری¬که بیشترین کاهش عملکرد غده در سناریوی A2 و در سال 2090 برای هر دو مدل گردش عمومی HadCM3 و IPCM4 شبیه¬سازی شد. میزان کاهش عملکرد غده در سناریوی B1 نسبت به دو سناریوی دیگر کمتر بود. گیاه سیب¬زمینی در سناریوی A2 در مقایسه با دو سناریوی دیگر از شاخص سطح برگ کمتری برخوردار بود. همچنین طول مرحله کاشت تا گلدهی و مدت زمان رسیدگی سیب¬زمینی در منطقه فریدون¬شهر در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده نسبت به شرایط فعلی کاهش خواهد یافت که دلیل اصلی این کاهش، افزایش درجه حرارت (بسته به سناریوهای مختلف بین 1/1 تا 4/5 درجه سانتی¬گراد) و در نتیجه افزایش سرعت رشد گیاه در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده می¬باشد.

جزئیات مقاله

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ارجاع به مقاله
اداوی ظ., & تدین م. (2016). تأثیر تغییر اقلیم برتولید سیب¬زمینی (Solanum tuberosum L.) در منطقه فریدون¬شهر اصفهان I- رشد و نمو. بوم شناسی کشاورزی, 9(4), 1117-1135. https://doi.org/10.22067/jag.v9i4.53529
نوع مقاله
علمی - پژوهشی