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علیرضا کوچکی مهدی نصیری محلاتی افسانه امین غفوری منصوره محلوجی راد

چکیده

به منظور تفکیک سهم عوامل به‌نژادی و به‌زراعی و ارزیابی روند تغییرات آنها داده‌های تولید، سطح زیر کشت و عملکرد گندم (.Triticum aestivum L) آب کشور در طی دوره 40 ساله 90-1350 مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. میزان تولید گندم در طی این دوره با متوسط رشد سالانه حدود 8 درصد 25/3 برابر شده درحالی‌که میانگین رشد سطح زیر کشت تا پایان دهه 70 در حدود 8/2 درصد در سال بوده و در طی دهه 80 بطور متوسط سالانه 1 درصد کاهش یافته است. عملکرد گندم نیز بطور متوسط سالانه 58 کیلوگرم در هکتار (5/3 درصد در سال) افزایش داشته است البته نتایج نشان داد که نوسان سالانه آب و هوایی در طی دوره تحت بررسی باعث شده تا نرخ رشد عملکرد 21 درصد کمتر از مقدار قابل حصول آن باشد. در طی این دوره 40 ساله میانگین سهم عملکرد و سطح زیر کشت در تولید به ترتیب 56 و 44 درصد بوده و برآورد می‌شود که در دهه 90 سهم عملکرد تا 70 درصد افزایش یابد. پتانسیل ژنتیکی عملکرد ارقام گندم در فاصله سال‌های 90-1347 سالانه در حدود 57 کیلوگرم در هکتار افزایش یافته که معادل 18/1 درصد در سال می‌باشد. بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق در طی دوره تحت بررسی 8/34 درصد از رشد سالانه عملکرد گندم آبی کشور مربوط به عوامل به‌نژادی (اصلاح ارقام) و بقیه مربوط به عملیات به‌زراعی بوده است. سهم کودهای شیمیایی نیتروژنی و فسفره در رشد عملکرد گندم به ترتیب 4/25 و 8/8 درصد برآورد شد و سایر عملیات به‌زراعی سهمی معادل 31 درصد در افزایش سالانه عملکرد گندم کشور داشتند. البته سهم عوامل به‌نژادی و به‌زراعی در طی این دوره 40 ساله متغیر بوده و بالاترین سهم عوامل ژنتیکی و کودهای شیمیایی در عملکرد مربوط به دهه 70 می‌باشد.

جزئیات مقاله

کلمات کلیدی

آنالیز روند, بازده ژنتیکی, پتانسیل ژنتیکی, شاخص اصلاح ارقام

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ارجاع به مقاله
کوچکی ع., نصیری محلاتی م., امین غفوری ا., & محلوجی راد م. (2018). برآورد سهم نسبی عوامل بهنژادی و به¬زراعی در افزایش عملکرد در نظام¬های تولید گندم (.Triticum aestivum L) کشور. بوم شناسی کشاورزی, 11(1), 137-153. https://doi.org/10.22067/jag.v11i1.48702
نوع مقاله
علمی - پژوهشی

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