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رضا عباسی علی کمر مهدي نصيري محلاتي علیرضا کوچکی

چکیده

ميانگين دماي سطحي زمين در طي 30 سال گذشته در طي هر دهه 2/0 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزايش داشته است. ايران نيز از اين گرمايش جهاني به دور نبوده و اثرات آن در نقاط مختلف کشور مشهود مي‌باشد. اين تغييرات دما اثرات زيادي بر دوره‌هاي رشدگياهان دارد و به‌ تبع آن توليد گياهان زراعي را نيز تحت تأثير قرار مي‌دهد. در اين پژوهش روند تغييرات دماي 18 شهر از چهار ناحيه اقليمي (خزري، گرم، معتدل و سردسير) در طي 20 سال گذشته (91- 1371) مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت و با استفاده از مدل شبيه‌سازي WOFOST مراحل گل‌دهي و رسيدگي گندم آبي (Triticum aestivum L.) در هر منطقه مشخص شد. سپس تغييرات مراحل گل‌دهي و رسيدگي و همچنين عملکرد گندم و رابطه آن‌ها با دما در هر ناحيه بررسي شد. نتايج نشان داد که در طي سال‌هاي مورد مطالعه، در تمامي 18 شهر کشور، دماي ميانگين سالانه افزايش يافت که در آن اردبيل بيشترين شدت افزايش دما (159/0 درجه سانتی‌گراد به‌ازاي هر سال) و پارس‌آباد مغان کمترين شدت افزايش دما (066/0 درجه سانتی‌گراد به‌ازاي هر سال) را نشان داد. واسنجي و تغييرات پارامترهاي مدل WOFOST بر اساس داده‌هاي واقعي و صحت‌سنجي مدل با RMSE% و آزمون شيب خط رگرسيون براي شهرهاي منتخب هر ناحيه اقليمي انجام شد. نتايج نشان داد که اين مدل با دقت بالايي قادر به تخمين مراحل گل‌دهي و رسيدگي گندم بود. در مناطق گرم و مرطوب خزري افزايش دماي ميانگين سالانه، با شدت کمي طول دوره پر شدن و عملکرد دانه را افزايش داده که احتمالاً به‌دليل اثرات تعديلي رطوبت هوا در اين مناطق بوده است. امّا در مناطق گرم و خشک جنوب و مرکز ايران افزايش دما به‌تدريج با ايجاد تنش در دوره رسيدگي دانه منجر به کاهش طول دوره پر شدن دانه و کاهش عملکرد گندم شده است. در مناطق معتدل نيز با افزايش دما، کاهش طول دوره پر شدن و عملکرد دانه گندم مشهود بود. با افزايش دماي ميانگين سالانه در مناطق سردسير، طول دوره پر شدن دانه افزايش يافته که دليل آن احتمالاً عدم برخورد ابتداي دوره زايشي با سرماي خسارت‌زا بوده است و قرار گرفتن دوره پر شدن دانه در محدوده دمايي مناسب در اين نواحي منجر به افزايش عملکرد شده است. میانگین عملکرد پتانسیل گندم با در نظر گرفتن سهم شهرهای مورد مطالعه از تولید کل کشور در طی یک دهه (81-1371) به‌میزان 8/1% و در طی دو دهه (91- 1371) به‌میزان 28/3 % کاهش داشته است.

جزئیات مقاله

کلمات کلیدی

تغييراقليم, رگرسيون, شبيه‌سازي, گرمايش جهاني, WOFOST

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ارجاع به مقاله
عباسی علی کمرر., نصيري محلاتيم., & کوچکیع. (2020). بررسي روند تغييرات دمايي و اثرات آن بر طول دوره پر شدن دانه و پتانسیل عملکرد گندم (Triticum aestivum L.) در مناطق مختلف ايران در طي يک دوره 20 ساله (91-1371. بوم شناسی کشاورزی, 12(2), 319-343. https://doi.org/10.22067/jag.v12i2.58737
نوع مقاله
علمی - پژوهشی